Research Manager, Prediction

What you'll do

• Set research priorities and lead, hire, and develop Prediction Researchers and research engineers.
• Design and evaluate predictive methods against strong baselines, with emphasis on calibration, temporal validity, subgroup performance, and robustness to changing conditions.
• Partner across research, data, and engineering teams to transfer validated methods into production.

What they ask for

• Experience leading predictive, forecasting, machine-learning, quantitative, or applied research with a high empirical bar.
• Evidence of developing or directing an original research agenda and building predictive systems from messy, heterogeneous data.
• Ability to combine statistical reasoning, model design, data design, implementation, and detailed error analysis; understand language models’ strengths and failure modes.
• Experience managing or technically leading researchers and developing their scientific judgment.

Nice to have

• Experience in areas such as time-series modeling, econometrics, causal inference, risk modeling, or market prediction.
• Experience with LLM agents, retrieval, tool use, prospective forecasting, or translating research into production systems.

Tools

language models, retrieval, tools, statistical models, machine-learning models

AI focus

Develop and test predictive systems that may combine structured data, machine-learning methods, language models, retrieval, tools, inference-time reasoning, and simulated agents; validate whether each contributes predictive signal.